UFC 121 Predictions & Analysis

MAIN CARD

Paulo Thiago (170.5) vs Diego Sanchez (170.5)
This fight starts off the main card. I view it as a relatively easy win for Diego. I don’t think Thiago really has much to offer in this fight, and other than his GORGEOUS knockout of Josh Koscheck, he has looked rather unimpressive in the UFC. Diego has returned to Greg Jackson's and will return to his winning ways.

Sanchez via Unanimous Dec.

Gabriel Gonzaga (254) vs Brendan Schaub (239)
Look... Brendan Schaub is a good fighter, and Gabriel Gonzaga has had his share of losses, but Schaub is simply not on Gonzaga’s level. Gonzaga’s losses also come at the hands of Dos Santos, Carwin, Werdum, and Couture... it’s not like he’s fighting scrubs out there. Gabriel wins whenever he want to.

Gonzaga via Knockout (1st Round)*

Matt Hamill (203.5) vs Tito Ortiz (206)
This is a tough fight to pick. Everyone is going around saying how Tito hasn’t won a fight in 4 years, which although true, is very misleading. For all intents and purposes he beat Rashad Evans but had a point deducted, so the fight ended in a draw. And Rashad is a tough opponent who will be fighting for the title soon. However, Hamill is simply a better wrestler than Tito, and I think that wins him the fight since neither have amazing standup.

Hamill via Unanimous Dec.

Martin Kampmann (170) vs Jake Shields (170.5)
Great fight on paper, snoozefest in reality if you have ever seen Jake Shields fight before. He is a great wrestler, and that wins him fights. In that respect, Shields has the edge, but Kampann wins the standup battle easily, and is no sloutch on the ground. I see this fight going back and forth. Sheilds wins the first round by taking Kampmann down quick and holding him there the entire round. The second round is up for grabs, Kampann avoids most takedowns, attempts some submissions, and wins all standup exchanges. By the third round Kampmann figures out Jakes style and controls the fight, picking him apart standing. The fight could go either way, whoever the judges thought won the second round wins the fight.

Kampmann via Split Dec.

Brock Lesnar (264) vs Cain Velasquez (244)
Lesnar came in a pound under the limit?!?!? is the world coming to an end?!?!? Seriously though, the guy is still a monster. Don’t believe the hype train that Cain has the cardio advantage in this fight. He has never pushed around a Brock sized fighter before. Brock is bigger, stronger, and possibly faster. No doubt Cain is ‘more skilled”. But Brock is learning really quick, and has come A LOT WAY since he was submitted by Mir back in the day. The scarier thing is, which we learned in his last fight, somebody taught Lesnar how to choke people with his mammoth arms. JDS and Carwin are the only 2 in the division who have a chance at dethroning the baddest man on the planet.

Lesnar via Choke (3rd Round)*

SPIKE PRELIMS

Ryan Jensen (185) vs Court McGee (184.5)
Court McGee via Submission/Tapout (2nd round)
Tom Lawlor (185) vs Patrick Cote (185)
Patrick Cote via TKO (3rd Round)

PRELIMS
Daniel Roberts (170) vs Mike Guymon (170)
Mike Guymon via Unanimous Dec.
Paul Taylor (155) vs Sam Stout (155.5)
Sam Stout via Split Dec.*
Dongi Yang (186) vs Chris Camozzi (185)
Yang via TKO (2nd Round)
Gilbert Yvel (249) vs Jon Madsen (254.5)
Madsen via Unanimous Dec.

*BONUSES*
Fight of the Night - Paul Taylor vs. Sam Stout
Submission of the Night - Brock Lesnar
Knockout of the Night - Gabriel Gonzaga